Earth only has 33% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C by 2029

The ambitious target of limiting to 2.7°F (1.5°C) is looking less and less likely, a new study has warned.

Researchers from the University of Washington have calculated how much warming is already guaranteed based on past emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxide, and aerosols like sulphur and soot.

Their findings suggest that by 2029, Earth has a two-thirds chance of at least temporarily exceeding warming of 2.7°F (1.5°C), even if all emissions cease on that date.

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