Our election model moves to 'lean Trump' for the first time

Monday brings a potentially decisive shift in the DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners election model: For the first time it has shifted to 'lean Trump' after weeks of indicating that the ballot is a 'toss up.'

It is the result of a raft of new polling data suggesting ' national lead has shrunk or evaporated altogether.

And multiple now show that the former president has a narrow lead in most of the battlegrounds that will decide who wins the next election.

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