As a new round of presidential elections gets under way in the United States, much of the world looks with exacerbation at the possibility of yet another major shift in America’s domestic and foreign policy. The mere thought of a Trump comeback in 2024 is nerve-racking for Washington’s allies, considering his vengeful eagerness to (once again) wreak havoc in America’s democracy and its role in the world.No wonder most states are reluctant to support Washington’s policy towards Russia or China, for fear of another radical change of policy under the next administration as had happened after every administration in the past two or three decades. From the Bush administration’s imperialist and messianic overreach to Obama’s pragmatic realism, to Trump’s America-first nationalism and lastly, Biden’s return to strategic posturing, the dizzying change of doctrines has underlined the unreliability (read shiftiness) in American leadership.The strategic erraticism constitutes a major departure from America’s steadiness during the Cold War. It also contrasts sharply with the autocratic but stable regimes in Russia and China, which have been largely predictable since their resurgence at the turn of the 21st century. World leaders need not wonder who will be in charge in Moscow or Beijing come next year, but wish they knew who will win next year’s American elections.
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