Russia and the West have been engaged in a sporadically escalating series of economic skirmishes for eight years. So far, this economic tug of war had some notable effects on Russia, but barely affected the wider global economy. With Russia’s unprovoked war of aggression on Ukraine unfolding at a devastatingly rapid pace, however, that is likely to change.
The first move in this war was made by Russia and involved Ukraine. In December 2013, at the height of the Euromaidan protests, Moscow presented the pro-Russia government of Viktor Yanukovych with a highly complex $3bn loan, which was laden with unique clauses that gave it significant economic leverage over Ukraine’s future.
Just a few months later, in February 2014, protesters deposed Yanukovych’s regime, and a new debate emerged about whether Ukraine should pay Russia back.
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